Completed Bets
for Don Geddis

10/20/2015: Nov 2015 election

Anthony Ranii believed that the fall campaign generated a lot of interest in the town, and voter turnout would be higher than usual. Typical (off-year) school board elections had 2500-2700 voters. Anthony bet $5 that more than 3000 ballots would be cast for the school board candidates in Hillsborough in the November 2015 election. Result: 2748 ballots cast, Don wins. Anthony paid $5 in nickels and pennies.

8/19/2015: Gifted OLSAT testing

In fall 2015, for OLSAT-8 gifted testing in HCSD, K & 2nd grades were "opt-out". 1st & 3rd-8th were "opt-in". North Principal (and HCSD gifted committee co-chair) Angela O'Donnell believed that "most" (75%?) parents would decide to opt their kids in to testing. Don believed that "few" (25%?) would do so. The bet was agreed at 50%. Stakes: Lobster lunch at Kincaid's. Result: In 1st & 3rd-8th, 493 students out of 1161 total, chose to opt in to OLSAT testing. As 42% < 50%, Don wins.

11/2014: Urbanathlon

Anthony Ranii pressured Don into running in the 2014 Urbanathlon, an 11-mile race with 15 obstacles. Don used to run 3 miles daily, and often 10K (6.2mi) races -- but that was 20 years ago. Back then, Don had tried a single half-marathon (13mi), and hated it.

Anthony bet lunch that, "overall", Don would judge that the experience had been a positive one. In January 2015, Don reluctantly, grudgingly, admitted that, on net, the one event was a positive one. Despite hating the 10mi training runs.

Don loses, and buys Anthony lunch.

12/25/2012: Hillary Clinton testimony

The Republican Congress wished to investigate the terrorist attack on the US Embassy in Benghzai, Libya, and in particular the Obama administration's response at the time. Hillary Clinton, as Secretary of State, was scheduled to appear before Congress to testify. On Dec 15, Clinton fainted (due to illness), and suffered a concussion. She was in the hospital for awhile, released, and then re-admitted after the discovery of a blood clot, stemming from the concussion. Some Republicans openly questioned whether the concussion was really a conspiracy to avoid testifying about Benghzai. On (Christmas) December 25, 2012, (my father) Jim Geddis bet me $5 that Clinton would never testify before Congress, in her official capacity as Secretary of State.

On January 2, 2013, Clinton was released from the hospital. On Wednesday, January 23, 2013, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton appeared before Congress to testify about Benghazi. (To be fair, this was three days after Obama's official January 20 inauguration for his second term, and two days after the public Monday January 21 Inauguration ceremony. Clinton has also publicly stated that she will not serve as Secretary of State in Obama's second term, and it is expected that John Kerry will soon be appointed to the post.)

Result: Don wins $5.

11/25/2012: Go #3 (man vs. machine)

Vs. Joe Mathes. Full details are available here.

5/15/2011, Submission grappling: Geddis vs. Harvey

This occurred during one of the Go matches. Full details are available there.

5/28/2010: Go #2 (man vs. machine)

Vs. Dusty Leary. Full details are available here.

5/8/2010, UFC 113: Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun (II)

Win Ark says that Lyoto will win via KO or TKO (if I give him 4:1 odds). If so, Win gets a Machida walk-out t-shirt (~$40). If Shogun wins (by any means), or there is a decision (for either fighter), then Don gets 8oz Truffles (~$10). If Lyoto wins by submission, or some other thing happens (e.g. No Contest), then the bet is a draw. Result: Shogun by KO 3:35 R1, Don wins.

1/31/2009, UFC 94: BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre

Win Ark bets ($1) that GSP will win by submission. Don gives 10:1 odds (hence risks $10) that either BJ will win, or else GSP will win by some method other than submission (e.g. decision or KO). Result: GSP wins by BJ's corner conceding after the fourth round. Hence, Don wins $1.

5/24/2008, UFC 84: Tito vs. Lyoto

Lyoto Machida is an MMA fighter with a karate background (and also a BJJ black belt). He's fighting the ground & pound wrestler Tito Ortiz, who was the #1 ranked light-heavyweight a few years ago. Tito's nearing the end of his career. Ryoto is undefeated so far, but most of his fights have been against substandard competition, and until recently he usually won via a "boring" judge's decision. I'm taking Tito, and Win Ark is taking Ryoto (against anyone!). Stakes: Win wants two 8.8oz cans of Blue Lavazza ground espresso; I'll take a 1lb box of See's Truffles. I consider this a 50/50 bet; very hard to call the winner. Result: Lyoto wins a clear 3-round decision (and thus Win wins the bet).

5/5/2008 Medical Prayer

Don: Mainstream peer-reviewed medical journals will not publish studies showing the medical effectiveness of 3rd-party religious prayer. Winfred Ark: yes, they will. Time limit: December 31, 2013. Stakes: 50:1 odds on $10 (if no studies, vs. $500 if published studies).

Resolved: May 17, 2009, as "yes, positive studies have been published", with Win's citations (and thus Win wins $500):

  • Effects of remote, retroactive intercessory prayer on outcomes in patients with bloodstream infection: randomised controlled trial. (eng; includes abstract) By Leibovici L, BMJ (Clinical Research Ed.) [BMJ], ISSN: 0959-8138, 2001 Dec 22-29; Vol. 323 (7327), pp. 1450-1; PMID: 11751349
  • Does prayer influence the success of in vitro fertilization-embryo transfer? Report of a masked, randomized trial. (eng; includes abstract) By Cha KY, Wirth DP, The Journal Of Reproductive Medicine [J Reprod Med], ISSN: 0024-7758, 2001 Sep; Vol. 46 (9), pp. 781-7; PMID: 11584476
  • A randomized, controlled trial of the effects of remote, intercessory prayer on outcomes in patients admitted to the coronary care unit. (eng; includes abstract) By Harris WS, Gowda M, Kolb JW, Strychacz CP, Vacek JL, Jones PG, Forker A, O'Keefe JH, McCallister BD, Archives Of Internal Medicine [Arch Intern Med], ISSN: 0003-9926, 1999 Oct 25; Vol. 159 (19), pp. 2273-8; PMID: 10547166
  • Positive Therapeutic Effects of Intercessory Prayer in a Coronary Care Unit Population. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, 1/20/89, Vol. 261 Issue 3, p372, 1/9p
  • Positive therapeutic effects of intercessory prayer in a coronary care unit population. (eng; includes abstract) By Byrd RC, Southern Medical Journal [South Med J], ISSN: 0038-4348, 1988 Jul; Vol. 81 (7), pp. 826-9; PMID: 3393937

4/24/2008, Obama wins election

Don: Obama will win the US Presidential election held on November 4, 2008. Bill ("gichoke"/"sportfighter") Mahoney: Obama will not win. Stakes: $100. Public declaration on the Usenet newsgroup rec.martial-arts. Result: Obama (and thus Don) wins in a landslide, 365 electoral votes to 173. (Although not important, the popular vote was 52.7% for Obama, to 46.0% for McCain.)

4/14/2007, BodogFight: Fedor vs. Lindland

Fedor Emelianenko (world #1 ranked heavyweight MMA fighter) vs. Matt Lindland (olympic silver medal in wrestling, top middleweight MMA fighter). St. Petersburg, Russia. Fedor destroys everybody, outstriking the strikers (e.g. Cro Cop), and outgrappling the grapplers (e.g. Minotauro). And a guy more than a weight class below him is going to be a threat? I don't think so. But Ben "Dude" Curson bet me $20, and Arash bet me $50, that Lindland will win. With just even odds. Unbelievable. Result: Fedor won by armbar at 2:58 of R1. I win again.

12/30/2006, UFC 66: Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz (II)

I bet $50 on Liddell to repeat, against Arash who is betting on Tito. The main talk is that Liddell might be getting bored with winning all the time, and Ortiz is "hungry". But just looking at the skills on paper, Liddell is a bad matchup for Tito. Tito's only strategy is ground & pound, but Liddell is extremely difficult to take down (or to keep down if you manage to get him down), and his striking is far, far better than Tito's. Unless Liddell gets very lazy and just doesn't bother to train, this should be another easy victory, just like the first matchup. Result: 3rd RD TKO, Don wins.

11/18/2006, UFC 65: Hughes vs. GSP

Batata wanted a rematch from the UFC 60 bet, and had jumped on the Hughes bandwagon. But this time I thought GSP had the edge, despite the dominance Hughes had shown as long-time UFC champion. GSP was winning their first matchup (before getting caught) when he was new to MMA. And GSP had recently dominated Frank Trigg -- even in the wrestling! -- who is almost Hughes-quality as a wrestler. Result: GSP by R2 KO. I win (and Batata loses again).

9/22/2005: Efficient Markets

Following some theoretical discussion about efficient market theory, Winfred Ark bet me that Genetech (DNA) would outperform the market averages over the next year. On 9/22/2005, DNA was $88/share (market cap $94B); DJ 10442, NASDAQ 2111, S&P500 1215. On 9/22/2006 DNA was $78 ($83B); DJ 11508, NASDAQ 2219, S&P500 1314. I won, Win lost. Stakes: loser displays a photo of winner prominently on their mantel for a year.

5/27/2006, UFC 60: Royce vs. Hughes

Royce Gracie vs. Matt Hughes, May 27, 2006, Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA. I've been a fan of Royce since the first UFC, and trained in BJJ myself since 1994. That said, Hughes had all the advantages in this matchup. I bet $100 (in two bets, vs. Arash and vs. Batata) that Hughes will win. Result: Hughes dominated and won easily, and I won the bets.

12/23/2003: Go (man vs. machine)

Vs. Scott Roy. Full details are available here.

April 2002: Overture/Google patent lawsuit

In April 2002, Overture (since acquired by Yahoo) filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Google. I bet $25 that Google would never pay a significant amount of money. I lost this bet.


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