Google Patent Infringement Bet

Background

Goto.com invented the internet search engine concept of paid advertising listings, where the search results to a text query are presented in the order of which advertiser is willing to pay the most. In the late 1990's, this concept was mocked by many internet observers. However, it has rapidly grown to become one of the only profitable pure-internet business models that survived the dot-com bust.

Narinder Singh and I were working at Cadabra, which was purchased by Goto.com in January 2000. Narinder, over the next few years, spent some time working in Goto.com's intellectual property group, including their strategy with regard to patents.

Goto.com, which changed its name to Overture Services, filed US Patent 6,269,361 ("the DTC patent" or "the '361 patent") on July 31, 2001.

On April 4, 2002, Overture filed a patent infringement lawsuit against Google, which had recently added a paid-placement advertising section to its search results page. (News reports: CNet/News.com, SearchEngineWatch.com, ClickZ.com, USA Today.)

On October 7, 2003, Yahoo completed their acquisition of Overture, presumably acquiring the Google patent lawsuit along with everything else.

As of February 2004 (the beginning of this bet), the patent lawsuit is still "in process". No specific progress has been publicly reported by either side.

Stakes	$25
Bettors	Don Geddis (on the side of Google) Narinder Singh (on the side of Yahoo)
Bet	Because of the April 2002 patent infringement lawsuit filed by Overture against Google, either: Google (or its successor compan(ies)) will pay Yahoo (or its successor compan(ies)) $50 million, or more, in an out-of-court settlement, or this trial will result in a judgment against Google (or its successor compan(ies)) , where Google (or its successor compan(ies)) will be required to pay Yahoo (or its successor compan(ies)) $50 million or more.
Sides	Narinder Singh is betting that Google will pay $50 million or more. I'm betting that Google won't.
Duration	This bet was entered into on February 20, 2004. It has a duration of at most five years (unless terminated earlier), so it will expire without result if the lawsuit is still pending on February 20, 2009.
Termination	Out of court settlement. The first court judgement, after the original judge reviews the damage award, but prior to any appeals (either to the patent courts or the regular court system).
Draw	It may turn out that the case is settled out of court, but confidentially. If we are unable to determine whether Google paid $50 million or more, then this bet is void. Similarly, if the outcome is not yet determined by February 20, 2009, then this bet is void.