Don Geddis
My personal home page

2015Vice President, Hillsborough School Board
Chair, Hillsborough Recreation Commission
2013-2017Governing Board Member
Hillsborough School Board
2014Vice Chair, Hillsborough Recreation Commission
2012-2013West Trustee Representative
West Parent Group exec board
GATE committee
Judge, West ILab Tech Challenge
2011-2012West Trustee Representative
West Parent Group exec board
Judge, West ILab Tech Challenge
2010-2011Chair, West School Site Council
West Parent Group exec board
Webmaster, HCSD: Parents & SSCs
Judge, West ILab Tech Challenge
2009-2010West School Site Council
VP of R & D
VP of Technology, Shopping
Founder Cadabra
Tesserae Info Sys
1987-1995 Ph.D. (and Master's) in
Artificial Intelligence,
Computer Science
Stanford University
1984-1987 B.S., Computer ScienceStanford University

Martial Arts

In 1987 I started practicing Aiki Jujitsu in the self-defense club at Stanford University. In 1996 I was promoted to third-degree black belt.

In 1994, after watching Royce Gracie win the second Ultimate Fighting Championship, I started training in the Gracie style of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, the bulk of it at Ralph Gracie's academy in Mountain View. On May 6, 2008 Ralph promoted me to black belt in BJJ. I occasionally compete in Brazilian jiu-jitsu tournaments, and can now sometimes be found training at Ralph's academy in San Francisco.

Favorite Short Stories
  • The Lottery, by Shirley Jackson
  • The Veldt, by Ray Bradbury
  • I Have No Mouth, and I Must Scream, by Harlan Ellison

Favorite Novels
  • A Fire Upon the Deep, by Vernor Vinge


Inspired by LongBets.Org, and Julian Simon's 1980 bet with Paul Ehrlich on the future price of five metals.

Related efforts include and The Good Judgment Project.

I find it useful -- when people have a strong disagreement in their predictions about future world events -- to quantify the confidence of their assertions by associating it with hard cash. If nothing else, it causes all parties to take stock of what they actually believed at the time, and then avoid various kinds of experimental bias by actually following through to see what the outcome turns out to be.


Open Bets

Peak Oil (4/15/2008). Between 2008 and the year 2030, if the world's annual production of crude oil ever meets or exceeds an average of 75 MBD, then Win Ark wins. If the annual crude oil production between 2008-2030 is always less than 75 MBD average, then Don wins. Stakes: the monetary equivalent of the closing price of a barrel of US Texas crude oil at the end of the year when the bet terminates. More details.

Go (12/23/2003). Three lifetime, biannual, man-vs-machine bets on the game of Go.

Completed Bets

Full details are available for for summary below.

DateEventOpponent StakesOutcome
10/20/201511/2015 election: <3000 ballots Anthony Ranii$5 Win
8/19/2015HCSD gifted testing opt-in <50% Angela O'DonnellLobster @ Kincaid's Win
12/15/2014Nov 2015 election Margi Power$5 ($10) (x2) Win
11/2014Urbanathlon Anthony RaniiLunch Loss
5/18/2014Running (Will vs. Dusty), 10years@2x/yr Dusty Leary$12.50ea/$5K ($12.50) Win (x1)
2014Return student to HCSD Angela O'DonnellEarrings Loss
12/25/2012Hillary Clinton testimony Jim Geddis$5 Win
11/25/2012Go #3 (man vs. machine) Joe Mathes$50ea ($200) Win (x4)
5/15/2011Submission grappling: Geddis vs. Harvey Will Harvey$1ea/$100 ($2) Win (x2)
5/28/2010Go #2 (man vs. machine) Dusty Leary$50ea ($50) Loss (1-7)
5/8/2010UFC 113: Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun (II) Win ArkTruffles Win
1/31/2009UFC 94: BJ Penn vs. Georges St. Pierre Win Ark$1 Win
5/24/2008UFC 84: Tito vs. Lyoto Win ArkEspresso Loss
5/5/2008Medical Prayer Win Ark$500 ($10) Loss
4/24/2008Obama wins election Bill Mahoney$100 Win
4/14/2007Bodog: Fedor vs. Lindland "Dude" & Arash$70 Win
12/30/2006UFC 66: Liddell vs. Ortiz Arash$50 Win
11/18/2006 UFC 65: Hughes vs. GSP Batata$50 Win
5/27/2006 UFC 60: Hughes vs. Royce Arash & Batata$100 Win
9/22/2005 Efficient markets Win ArkPhoto Win
12/23/2003 Go (man vs. machine) Scott Roy$10ea ($250) Win (x25)
4/2002 Overture/Google patent Narinder Singh$25 Loss

Open Source

ANSI Common Lisp
Asciify Convert a string with European accented characters, into "equivalent" 7-bit ASCII (A-Z,a-z).
Grid Make a blank grid suitable for crossword or cross-sum puzzles, with typical symmetry and connectiveness.

My Current Web Sites

URLTopicNotes Don GeddisMy personal home page Saltwater reef aquariumPhotos & video from home aquarium Aiki JujitsuArchive of my last version Brazilian Jiu-JitsuArchive of my last version

My Previous Web Sites

URLTopicNotes Gracie and Brazilian Jiu-JitsuJan 15 1996 - Sept 5 2006 (10+ years) Aiki Jujitsu at StanfordFounding webmaster, mid 1990's Rickson Gracie Founding webmaster, mid 1990's Ralph Gracie Founding webmaster, mid 1990's
www.doubleudoubleudoubleudotcom.comNothing, really OK, this one was a joke For encrypted email, use my PGP Public Key. Last updated 11/18/15